Blinko

A modern statistics and AI boutique.

Is that change real, and what should you do about it?

Sales dip, customers go quiet, a new price goes live. We show you what the numbers really say, what is at stake and where to act.

Our work spans payments, healthcare, real estate and mobile games, and the statistics apply wherever you have data.

Start with a two-week diagnostic
An illustrative simulation of one fictional customer. As weekly data arrives, the estimate of the change in volume narrows until it shows either a real decline or normal variation.

Clients include

Fractal

Solventis

OmniXM

Apickle

Three questions we start with. Each one is a different kind of evidence, and we keep them apart.

The hard problems are the ones we take. Selected engagements.

Fractal and Sky Systemz

One live system tracking $100M+ in yearly transactions, with a health score model that tells account managers and sales reps which clients need attention.

A ranked list of accounts by risk, with the signals that moved one account's score.
Illustration
$100M+
in yearly transactions tracked in the system. This is volume, not revenue generated or saved.
Read the Fractal case study
“Blinko delivered exceptional work on a highly complex problem. Deep expertise in data science, machine learning, and business domain knowledge – exceeded all expectations.”
Steve Conn, Analytics Director, Fractal & Sky Systemz
  • Finance runs on risk. We put a number on it.

    When the board asks how sure you are, you have a number you can defend. Credit, fraud, customer loss and revenue risk.

    • Who will default, and what would it cost us?
    • Is this fraud, or a normal bad day?
    • Which merchants are quietly leaving?
    Statistics for finance
  • Healthcare needs evidence that survives peer review.

    When a journal or an investor asks how sure you are, your evidence holds up. Study design, patient outcomes and testing of clinical AI.

    • How many patients does this study need?
    • How should the trial be designed?
    • How long until the event, and what changes it?
    Statistics for healthcare

Another sector? The questions are the same.

Customers leave, demand moves and decisions need evidence in any business with data. Finance and healthcare are where we show the most, not where we stop.

  • Which customers are we about to lose?
  • How much will we need next quarter?
  • Did that change really work?

Also in our work:

Published research

Embryologist agreement when assessing blastocyst implantation probability: is data-driven prediction the solution to embryo assessment subjectivity?

First author. Oxford University Press, on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology.

Published research

Mathematical Model to Assess Mutational Burden in Retinal Dystrophy Patients Negative to Mendelian Genetic Tests and Carriers of Multiple Recessive Variants

Co-author. Journal of Ophthalmic and Vision Research. A preliminary model, studied in 527 subjects.

What you receive in two weeks. One fixed scope, on your own data.

A simple first step for any business that suspects revenue is slipping and cannot yet see where, or how much.

  • Account-level revenue trends and unusual declines
  • Seasonality and normal variation, where the data supports it
  • Estimated revenue exposure, with clear assumptions
  • Data quality findings and analytical limitations
  • Prioritized questions, investigations or actions
  • A recommended next phase, with scope and estimate
2 weeks
Fixed scope
Secure export
No integration needed to start
NDA first
Signed before any data review

The diagnostic shows where revenue is falling and how much is exposed. Historical data rarely proves why, or which action will work. Forecasting models, pricing tests and live alerts are a separate phase, if the findings justify one.

See the full diagnostic

Sample report

Illustrative: synthetic data, not a client

A fictional payments business: 3,960 merchants, over 36 months. Reported attrition is 8.1%. The book lost 14.6% of its revenue.

Where the apparent $690K decline went

Real decline, $543K

  • Closed accounts, $302K
  • Open, not processing, $97K
  • Processing less, $144K

Not a decline, $147K

  • Seasonal dips that came back, $84K
  • Same merchant, new merchant ID, $63K

Estimated exposure: $555K over the next 12 months

Assumes current loss rates hold in each segment. An estimate, not a prediction of what will happen.

Prioritized next steps

  1. Call 6 of the top 50 merchants. Their volume matches the pattern seen before past closures. $118K a year at stake
  2. Check 37 restaurants that have processed less for three months. Is a competitor's rate the cause? $96K a year at stake
  3. Review 212 open accounts that have stopped processing. $97K already lost

Needs a later phase: a rate-cut test. Past cuts went only to merchants who asked, so history cannot show whether they work.

At stake means yearly revenue on those accounts, not a predicted saving.

Built to support decisions you can defend.

  • Separate signals from normal variation

    Account for seasonality, changing customer behavior and imperfect data before flagging a problem.

  • Test predictions against realistic conditions

    Evaluate models using only the information that would have been available when the decision was made.

  • Measure the effect of an action

    Use experiments or appropriate causal methods to assess whether an action improved the outcome, and say where the evidence remains uncertain.

  • Put the analysis into daily use

    Connect results to your existing tools, with clear ownership, review steps and monitoring.

Noise has rules. Each ball falls at random. Together they draw the same curve every time. Know what chance looks like, and you can spot what is not chance.
Nearly 100
client engagements delivered since 2023
2 papers
published, in embryo assessment and retinal genetics
Georgia Tech
MSc in Computational Statistics and Analytics
Clinical trials
designed for an AI-driven fertility company

Bring us the question.

Tell us what you are seeing in the numbers. A statistician will tell you, honestly, whether your data can answer it.

NDA first. Read-only access or a secure export. We keep no copy of your data after the project.

Book 30 minutes on Calendly

What happens next

  1. 1Discuss the problem.
  2. 2Check whether suitable data is available.
  3. 3Agree on a written scope before the engagement begins.