Finance runs on risk. We put a number on it.
When the board asks how sure you are, you have a number you can defend. Credit, fraud, customer loss and revenue risk.
The questions we answer.
Who will default, and what would it cost us?
You see the chance of default on every account, and the dollars behind it.
Probability of default, survival models, calibration
Is this fraud, or a normal bad day?
Your team gets alerts it can actually review, and you know how many are false alarms.
Anomaly detection, base rates, precision at capacity
Which merchants are quietly leaving?
You see who is pulling back, how long you have and what it would cost.
Survival analysis, seasonal baselines
How bad could next quarter get?
You see the full range of outcomes, so your plans hold up in the bad quarter too.
Monte Carlo simulation, value at risk, stress tests
Did the policy change really help?
You see what the new limit, price or rule really did, apart from everything else that changed.
Difference in differences, randomized rollouts
- 40%
- more financial reviews completed at Apickle
Our work here draws on statistical risk analysis at the Bank of Israel and production systems for fintech clients.
Bring us the number you do not fully trust.
Tell us the risk or the decision. We will tell you honestly what your data can and cannot support.